RESUMO
BACKGROUND AIMS: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) poses significant short-term mortality. Existing prognostic models lack precision for 90-day mortality. Utilizing artificial intelligence (AI) in a global cohort, we sought to derive and validate an enhanced prognostic model. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The Global AlcHep initiative, a retrospective study across 23 centers in 12 countries, enrolled AH patients per NIAAA criteria. Centers were partitioned into derivation (11 centers, 860 patients) and validation cohorts (12 centers, 859 patients). Focusing on 30 and 90-day post-admission mortality, three AI algorithms (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machines, and eXtreme Gradient Boosting) informed an ensemble model, subsequently refined via Bayesian updating, integrating the derivation cohort's average 90-day mortality with each center's approximate mortality rate to produce post-test probabilities. The ALCoholic Hepatitis Artificial INtelligence (ALCHAIN) Ensemble score integrated age, gender, cirrhosis, and 9 laboratory values, with center-specific mortality rates. Mortality was 18.7% (30-day) and 27.9% (90-day) in the derivation cohort, versus 21.7% and 32.5% in the validation cohort. Validation cohort 30 and 90-day AUCs were 0.811 (0.779 - 0.844) and 0.799 (0.769 - 0.830), significantly surpassing legacy models like Maddrey's Discriminant Function, MELD variations, ABIC, Glasgow, and modified Glasgow Scores (p<0.001). ALCHAIN Ensemble score also showcased superior calibration against MELD and its variants. Steroid use improved 30-day survival for those with an ALCHAIN Ensemble score>0.20 in both derivation and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Harnessing AI within a global consortium, we pioneered a scoring system excelling over traditional models for 30 and 90-day AH mortality predictions. Beneficial for clinical trials, steroid therapy, and transplant indications, it's accessible at: https://aihepatology.shinyapps.io/ALCHAIN/.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) is a severe inflammatory form of alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) that carries a high mortality rate. Early liver transplantation for severe AH is increasingly available. However, specific criteria for referral and selection remain a subject of debate. AIMS: To provide a narrative review of the natural history, diagnostic criteria and indications for referral for early liver transplantation for severe AH. METHODS: We searched PubMed for articles published through August 2023. Key search terms were 'alcoholic hepatitis,' 'alcohol-associated hepatitis,' 'abstinence,' 'alcohol relapse,' and 'liver transplantation.' RESULTS: Previously, a six-month period of alcohol abstinence was required before patients with ALD were considered for liver transplantation. However, studies in recent years have demonstrated that, among carefully selected patients, patients who received early transplants have much higher survival rates than patients with similarly severe disease who did not undergo transplants (77% vs. 23%). Despite these successes, early liver transplantation remains controversial, as these patients have typically not undergone treatment for alcohol use disorder, with the ensuing risk of returning to alcohol use. CONCLUSIONS: While early liver transplantation for AH has survival benefits, many patients would not have received treatment for alcohol use disorder. An integrated approach to evaluating candidacy for early liver transplantation is needed.
